July 18, 2006

It's All About M.E.

of course I'm speaking of the Middle East.

Pajamas Media, Yoni, Instapundit, Hugh Hewitt & N.Z. Bear are the places to go to keep up with what's going on & why.

But here are a few of my thoughts:

If Iran gets involved then odds are Syria will as well. Israel won't have an easy time of it but I'm pretty sure they have a plan for taking on Hezbollah in Lebanon as well as Iran & Syria concurrently. If I was high up in the Israeli military I'd have plans to fight a multi-front war with everyone. It's not like they're in the most hospitable neighborhood.

Really I'd be content to just sit back, grab some popcorn, perhaps send the boys & girls in the IDF a pizza & see how long it takes Israel to straighten things out. I'm guessing days if they stop holding back. That is if it stays conventional.

If it goes chemical, biological or nuclear then the u.S. will get involved. That will make things messier all around.

Iran - they're pretty chummy with Russia & China from what I understand. I thought I recalled hearing they wer eon good terms with North korea as well. I would be very surprised if they hadn't acquired at least a small nuclear device in the last decade. I'm fairly confident that they have chemical &/or biological weapons. Hell, with us sitting on Iraq's border for how many months where did you think the 'weapons of mass destruction" would end up? Iran has some nasty things in its weapons stores. The question is will it use them?

If it does then, as I said above, we will get involved. I also said things would get messier but not just over in the M.E.

If the u.S. gets involved in any kind of engagement in Iran or Syria or really any damn place else then I'd look for North Korea to make an attempt at "reunification". I also wouldn't be surprised if China chose then to make sure everyone, especially the Taiwanese understood who controlled Taiwan.

I could also see China (& possibly, but not as much so, Russia) fighting us by proxy. China giving Iran, Syria &/or anyone else we're up against any material aid they could wouldn't shock me at all. Hell if things go very badly they might even send troops.

So the thing I'm worried about has nothing to do with Israel being able to hang. It's if we get pulled in then who all else will jump in to challenge us? & who will view that as a distraction to advance their own agendas?

One last thought - Even if we don't get directly involved (but especially if we do) I think that while the stuff is racing towards the fan in the M.E. would be a perfect time to launch more terrorist attacks here in the u.S. It's not like we have a secure border & can keep the bad guys out. Hell, they're probably already here just biding their time at Starbucks til they get the word. I have no idea how they'd attack but I know we could do something about Beslan-style attacks (such as end the prohibition on tools of defense in adult hands in schools). Sadly we won't. We won't even do much more than make a pretense of securing the border.

But be on the look out anyway. I could very well be mistaken but like I said if I were them I'd think now was a good time.

& yes; the longer this goes on the higher the gas prices will be. I'd also say that ammo will go up yet again, especially fodder for AK's & SKS's & AR's & such.

Posted by Publicola at July 18, 2006 03:08 AM | TrackBack